What factors is the future modelling based on?

We considered a wide range of factors to estimate the amount of residual waste that will require treatment through to 2050-2051.

This includes:

  • different scenarios for future recycling rates;
  • recent trends in waste prevention; and
  • targets for re-use, recycling and composting rates.

We also considered other factors, such as the financial risks of under capacity and fluctuations in the level of waste managed throughout the year.

Our modelling is based on a 50% household waste recycling rate and the facility is expected to have spare capacity of around 127,000 tonnes in 2025/26, reducing to around 89,000 tonnes by 2050/51. To make sure we don’t have spare capacity, this could be offered to third party residual waste collectors.

It also factors in that the population in north London is expected to increase from 2m to 2.5m by 2050.

If future waste rates are lower than estimated, or if there are higher rates of reuse, recycling and composting, then other sources of residual waste will be available both from within the North London Waste Authority area and beyond to fill any spare capacity in the facility, without this capacity acting as a barrier to continued efforts by us to encourage residents to reduce their waste and maximise their recycling.

For more information, please refer to the Need Assessment here.